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The Alberta Federation of Labour estimates as many as 60,000 jobs could be lost if the government cuts billions from the provincial budget next month.

The number of jobs lost -- not backed up by any government documents or confirmation to date -- would outpace even the effects of the global recession, federation president Gil McGowan said Monday morning.

"It's true that the government has not been talking about job cuts," McGowan said. But, "You can't cut $2 billion or $3 billion out of a provincial budget and not see job losses."

The federation outlines the risk of cutting government spending in a report called "Worse Than the Recession," released Monday.

The province is expected to outline the road to $2 billion in cuts and savings when the 2010-11 budget is released Feb. 9.

Edmonton Journal, Tues Jan 26 2010

Alberta's Tory government and a major labour group are sparring over potential job losses that will result when a tight-fisted provincial budget is tabled next month.

The Alberta Federation of Labour is projecting up to 60,000 job losses when Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives release their spending plan Feb. 9.

Federation president Gil McGowan stood on the steps of the legislature yesterday to say that a planned $2 billion in budget cuts will destroy thousands of jobs.

"They're not tipping their hand, they're not being forthright with Albertans," McGowan told a handful of reporters. "We've used their own forecasting to make our own estimates and frankly those estimates are frightening.

"With cuts of the magnitude they've been discussing - of between $2 billion and $3 billion - those cuts will result in the loss of between 33,000 jobs and 60,000 jobs."

But a Finance Ministry spokesman said the labour group is wrong and its projections are not based on accurate information.

"They seem to be aimed at creating fear," said Bart Johnson.

Alberta's $2 billion fiscal correction is based on projections that next year's budget will grow by $2 billion, he said.

So the Tory government's goal will be achieved, Johnson said, if it can keep the total budget at the same level of spending as last year - $36.4 billion.

The spring sitting of the legislature opens with a throne speech on Feb. 4.

Metro News Edm, Tues Jan 26 2010

Worse than the Recession? How government budget cuts could kill more Alberta jobs than the recession

Just as the recession appears to be lifting, the Alberta government is moving toward spending cuts. Instead of maintaining its spending over the recession and adding stimulus, as leading economic commentators recommend, it is going backward to the Klein-style cuts of the 1990s. Released January 25, 2010.

The Alberta government is about to embark on a program of public spending cuts that could kill more jobs in the province than were lost to the recession.

Using the government's own tools for economic forecasting, the Alberta Federation of Labour has prepared a report for the Join Together, Alberta campaign that reveals the devastating effects that would follow spending cuts of the magnitude floated by the government of Premier Ed Stelmach.

The global recession hit Alberta hard - there are 44,700 fewer jobs in the province today than there were at the "top of the boom" (October 2008).

The AFL report - entitled Worse Than the Recession? - concludes that by imposing a round of deep public-sector spending cuts, the government could end up destroying between 33,500 and 60,000 jobs, depending on the scale of the cuts.

These calculations were made using the government's own economic forecasting models and they were based on assumption that the government will impose cuts of between $2 billion and $3.72 billion.

"One of the central points that this analysis makes is that these massive job losses would not be confined to the public sector," says AFL president Gil McGowan. "For every health or education worker who loses a job, there are ripple effects that cause even more layoffs in the private sector."

"While governments and economists around the world report that stimulus measures are working and warn against spending cuts, Alberta appears headed in the opposite direction," says McGowan.

"And in the process they run the very real risk of stopping the recovery dead in its tracks and causing real pain for Albertans without any good reason."

Instead of imposing deep and unnecessary cuts, McGowan says the provincial government should be maintaining or even increasing levels of public investment to help Albertans ride out the recession and nurture the emerging economic recovery.

"Things are just starting to turn around," concludes McGowan. "But instead of throwing Albertans a life-line, the government is going to throw them a stone. It's a strategy that will drag Alberta workers, families and communities down just as they're struggling to keep their heads above water."

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Media Contactl:

Gil McGowan, AFL president @ (780) 218-9888 (cell)

Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan believes as many as 60,000 jobs could be lost as a result of provincial government cuts. (CBC)

Provincial government spending cuts could result in the loss of 33,500 to 60,000 jobs, according to a report released Monday by the Alberta Federation of Labour.
The job loss calculations were made based on an estimate the province will trim between $2 billion and $3.72 billion in the next budget.

"What our analysis suggests is that the number of jobs lost would actually be greater outside of the public sector than in the public sector because by taking the income out of local communities that will result in local jobs in the private sector," said AFL president Gil McGowan.

McGowan says the province should either maintain or increase spending levels to get Alberta through the recession.

"The economy is starting to pick up. With the expansion of the economy, government revenue will increase and so there won't be any real need for them even to consider cuts of the magnitude they've been discussing," he said.

A spokesperson for the Finance Ministry said the numbers are wrong because they based on incorrect information.
"They seemed to be aimed at creating fear," Bart Johnson told The Canadian Press.

Alberta's deficit is currently forecast to end the fiscal year at $4.3 billion. The province's health board, Alberta Health Services, is currently trying to wrestle its own deficit which sat at $1.1 billion in June.

The Alberta budget will be released on Feb. 9.

CBC News, Mon Jan 25 2010

The Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) is predicting up to 60,000 job losses when the Tory government unveils the spring budget next month.

AFL's president Gil McGowan told media Monday that as the Stelmach government finds ways to cut $2 billion in spending, thousands of jobs will be destroyed.

"They're not tipping their hand, they're not being forthright with Albertans," McGowan said.

The group calls the loss of between 33,000 jobs and 60,000 jobs "frightening".

Bart Johnson, a Finance Ministry spokesman says the group's predication is not based on accurate information. The government believes the AFL aims to instill fear in Albertans.

Johnson says the province's cost-cutting of $2 billion is based on the notion that next year's budget will grow by $2 billion.

The spokesman maintains the province's goal will be achieved, if it can keep the total budget at the same point of spending as last year, which was $36.4 billion.

The budget will be made public on February 9th.

CTV Edmonton, Mon Jan 25 2010

EDMONTON - Alberta's Tory government and a major labour group are sparring over potential job losses that will result when a tight-fisted provincial budget is tabled next month.

The Alberta Federation of Labour is projecting up to 60,000 job losses when Premier Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives release their spending plan Feb. 9.

Federation president Gil McGowan stood on the steps of the legislation Monday to say that a planned $2 billion in budget cuts will destroy thousands of jobs.

"They're not tipping their hand, they're not being forthright with Albertans," McGowan told a handful of reporters. "We've used their own forecasting to make our own estimates and frankly those estimates are frightening.

"With cuts of the magnitude they've been discussing - of between $2 billion and $3 billion - those cuts will result in the loss of between 33,000 jobs and 60,000 jobs."

But a Finance Ministry spokesman said the labour group is wrong and it's projections are not based on accurate information.

"They seem to be aimed at creating fear," said Bart Johnson.

Alberta's $2 billion fiscal correction is based on projections that next year's budget will grow by $2 billion, he said.

So the Tory government's goal will be achieved, Johnson said, if it can keep the total budget at the same level of spending as last year - $36.4 billion.

The spring sitting of the legislature opens with a throne speech on Feb. 4.

Winnipeg Free Press on-line edition, Mon Jan 25 2010

The Alberta Federation of Labour says their people crunched the government's spending cut numbers and found nothing but a job crisis ahead.

Gil McGowan, with the AFL, says their new report released today shows that when this year's budget comes out, the people Alberta are going to be hit where they work: "What our analysis suggests is that if the Provincial Government goes ahead with cuts on the magnitude they've been discussing - of between $2 and $3 billion - those cuts will result in the loss of between 30,000 and 60,000 jobs."

McGowan says that's compared to the 40,000 to 45,000 jobs the province lost during the recession.

Bart Johnson with the Finance Minster's office has a very different take on the AFL's projections. "Budget 2010 will not result in massive job losses." He adds, "The report as I've seen it seems intended to create fear and isn't based on any reasonable dialogue or accurate information."

Alberta's 2010 budget will come down February 9.

i880 News, Mon Jan 25 2010

As many as 60,000 jobs could be lost because of provincial government budget cuts, warns the Alberta Federation of Labour in a report released Monday.

The document titled Worse Than The Recession says the province is poised to cut an estimated $2 billion to $3.72 billion when they release the 2010-11 budget on Feb. 9, which could result in the loss of between 33,000 and 60,000 jobs.

This is higher than the 45,000 total jobs lost in Alberta since the beginning of the global recession in October 2008, said Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan.

"If the provincial budget cuts are at the higher range in the order of close to $3.5 billion, then they may end up killing more jobs in the province than the recession did," he said.

And the cuts won't just affect workers in the public sector, McGowan said, adding private sector workers could see an even bigger impact.

"Our economic model suggests there will be more cuts in the private sector than the public, simply in loss of jobs that provide services to the government and indirect job loss where public sector workers would have been spending money had they been able to hold on to their jobs."

The government shouldn't have to make such drastic cuts, McGowan said, adding they are in a better position than any other province to ride out the recession and have access to various "rainy-day funds" that can help, such as the province's Sustainability Fund.

"The economy is just now starting to turn around," McGowan said. "The last thing Albertans need is for the government to implement (former premier Ralph) Klein-style cuts, undermining recovery before it takes hold."

But Bart Johnson, spokesman for Alberta Finance and Enterprise, said the Alberta Federation of Labour's figures are wrong and "way off the mark."

The government's approach to budgeting has been focused on protecting "important services and important jobs," which includes capital spending of $6.9 billion to support 70,000 jobs, said Johnson.

"I can't go into detail with the budget at this time, but I can tell you that from what I've seen of (the AFL's) report, it looks like something that's there to generate fear based on false assumptions and exaggerations," Johnson said. "I think the AFL's report and news conference was a stunt apparently aimed at generating fear."

Edmonton Sun, Mon Jan 25 2010
Byline: Clara Ho

EDMONTON - The Alberta Federation of Labour estimates as many as 60,000 jobs could be lost if the government cuts billions from the provincial budget next month.

The number of jobs lost - not backed up by any government documents or confirmation to date - would outpace even the effects of the global recession, federation president Gil McGowan said Monday morning.

"It's true that the government has not been talking about job cuts," McGowan said. But, "You can't cut $2 or $3 billion out of a provincial budget and not see job losses."

The federation outlines the risk of cutting government spending in a report called "Worse Than the Recession," released Monday.

The province is expected to outline the road to $2 billion in cuts and savings when the 2010-11 budget is released Feb. 9.

A second $2-billion "fiscal correction" is expected in the 2011-12 budget, as Premier Ed Stelmach's government works its way out of a deficit.

"That seems vastly exaggerated," Finance Minister Ted Morton said of the federation's estimate, noting the province has been talking to labour groups about minimizing job losses. "We're hoping they'll be part of the solution, not part of the problem."

In 2009, a total of 28,600 jobs were lost in Alberta.

Edmonton Journal.com, Mon Jan 25 2010
Byline: Trish Audette